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Thread: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

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    Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

    EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 25, 2017

    On Friday, the EUR/USD had another range trading and consolidative day and attempted to break the 1.2000 level. However, a sudden strong selling beat the pair back which pushed the single European currency under the 1.20 region. This scenario was already anticipated since the elections in Germany is scheduled over the weekend, considering the fact that there is no one who would like to have large positions until the weekend.

    The elections took place and the results were announced, showing already anticipated outcome which is the victory of Merkelís party. However, something unexpected happened as the formation of a coalition started since many have said that Merkel is incapable to lead a government by herself only. Moreover, this could continue for some days or even weeks and the market is not in favor with this. There are only some instances where markets preferred some uncertainties and this situation could probably keep going and could lead for the euro sell-off.

    During the trading session this morning, we saw some sell-off in EUR, but a retracement developed. As of this writing, the EURUSD appeared to be weak which might continue until the end of the day. The London session is much awaited due to a lot of news regarding the elections that the markets would receive, allowing the market to make its own decision about which way to go. Hence, the indecision and uncertainty brought an impact to the euro.

    Ultimately, the ECB President Mario Draghi is expected to have his speech along with Germanyís election results which could possibly control the EUR trend for this day. According to projections, the euro-dollar pair will be under pressure throughout the day.
    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative
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    Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: October 4, 2017

    The EUR/USD bounced back after the report for wholesale price inflation came in better than expected. As the yields provided some support which made the single European currency to gain more attraction in relation to the US dollar, with the continuous boiling of the Catalonian issues.
    The greenback was able to sustain its gains due to a stronger than expected results of same-store sales, as it jumped almost to 5%.

    The euro-dollar pair rebounded yesterday, followed by testing of the support region at 1.1661 area near the August lows. The pairís resistance touched the 1.1822 level which is close to the 10-day moving average. Whence, the 10-day moving average moved beneath the 50-day moving average which indicates a downtrend in the medium-term in place.

    Moreover, the momentum preserved its negative position while the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram is printing in the red accompanied by a descending trajectory. This further shows that exchange rate became lower.
    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative
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    Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

    GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 10, 2017

    The markets are generally dull yesterday in spite the Cable pair moved higher during the daytime trading session. Both Canada and the United States is a holiday and liquidity is expected to be low during the entire day, while Japan is a holiday as well. However, the bulls active in the pound market took advantage of the low liquidity in pushing the prices upwards.

    Meanwhile, the British pound continues to struggle in the sluggish data causing the Bank of England to keep on hold in the near term. During the BoEís meeting in the previous month, there are possibilities that the central bank would raise its rates in December this year, but the impact of political risks and weaker data prompt them to be on hold.

    The Brexit process is excluded from the issues of political uncertainties rather the extension of the UK Prime Minister Theresa May from her position.

    Currently, PM May is urging to resign even by her own party and it remains unclear how she will handle this issue as well as to maintain the focus on processing the Brexit referendum.

    Moreover, there is a rising issue about the no-deal in the euro area which could negatively affect the Britainís economy.

    If these factors were combined, it could probably keep the GBP in the pressured area. For today, the UK manufacturing production data is scheduled to be released from the United States. When the liquidity became stable again, it is expected that the greenback will continue to decline but will support the GBP/USD pair to ascend.
    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative
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    Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

    GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 13, 2017

    The GBP/USD pair keep on trading in an up and down direction which seems directionless, by the weakness of the U.S dollar helps the Cable pair to boost amid this period.

    The struggle of the British currency continues due to the risks linked with the Brexit process, however, the dollar weakening appeared to be massive which affected others in moving up over the greenback. Until now, the Brexit process is ongoing but it remains to be seen any major development.

    The delay in the talks continues while other discussion also does not provide any progress so far. This trigger doubts if Brexit talks could possibly break down and further led to question if the United Kingdom will depart from the European Union even without any accomplished deal. This could be the possible thing to happen at this particular moment, which further resulted in lot of uncertainty.

    Moreover, the position of PM Theresa May seems to be threatened since last week because most of her party are against her leadership technique. Albeit, she was able to surpass such mess, she remains involved in a complicated scenario. These combined events pushed the sterling pound under pressure but the weakening of the dollar made it acceptable.

    Ultimately, the retail sales and CPI data from the United States are scheduled today while the United Kingdom has no major data for this day. These set of data should be monitored carefully by market participants because inflation is considered a major parameter by the Federal Reserve, particularly, in making the decision about the rate hike in December. In case the figures showed strong data, the GBPUSD is expected to wane.
    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative
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    Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

    EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 17, 2017

    The euro bucks pair failed to gain strength during the trading session on Monday, followed by expectations to drive higher amid sluggish US data issued on Friday. While the retail sales showed robust data as well, however, the CPI resulted to a lower than anticipated figures. This caused the EURUSD to test the 1.1870 range high but the pair continuously moved lower since that period.

    The EUR/USD weakened until the end of the trading course last Friday and the activity happened yesterday was a mere continuation of that previous trend. On one side, the U.S. dollar was able to acquire further strength since there are no any hints about the next missile launch from North Korea sooner or later, but the markets are still expecting for such motion. Moreover, this supported the greens to stir gradually and firmly across the board in the morning. The momentum ascends during the American hours with a high possibility that John Taylor would replace Janet Yellen for the position as Fed Chair. Taylor is known to be hawkish and very supportive of Fed rate increase. He is also favored by President Trump as the hawkishness helped the USD to perk up versus its counterpart currencies. Also, this has pushed the pair downwards below the 1.1780 mark as of this writing.

    Ultimately, the Germany ZEW economic sentiment is scheduled to release today and no other major news both from the European Union and the United States.

    The strength of the greenbacks is predicted to resumed this day as the pair eventually turns towards the range lows at 1.1700 mark.
    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative
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    Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

    EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 30, 2017

    The single European currency resumed moving lower as witnessed on Friday amid the sluggishness prompted by the ECB, as the central bank suspended the QE tapering. The effect of their decision would likely continue to be felt by the euro in the near term.

    A sudden recovery was seen after the US dollar lost its strength on Friday, however, the impact appeared to be very insignificant and the euro is expected to keep on moving lower within this week.

    The EUR was hardly hit by the ECBís decision to extend the tapering until September 2018, which was opposite to marketís expectations that the program will end without delay. The scheduled data from the European region will remain robust. Moreover, the investors who are large buyers of euro were quite surprised in the past few months from the time when the ECB touched on the QE tapering in the previous meetings.

    Whereas, ECB President Mario Draghi soften the talks about the tapering plan in the previous months in order to limit the strength of the European currency. But the market is not in the mood to pay attention and keep on buying more during that period. On Friday, they were awakened from the truth when the bank clearly stated its mood not to stop QE, which weakened the EUR.
    A slight rebound is expected today but the overall trend appeared to turn downwards.

    Ultimately, there is no major economic release from the US or Eurozone and as the month ends, there is a possibility of a profit taking, adjustments on positions and month end currency flow. Also, consolidation is anticipated, coupled with a small relief rally which could probably be sold and temporary.
    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative
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    Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

    EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 2, 2017

    The EUR/USD pair waited for the FOMC minutes throughout the trading day on Wednesday, the minutes are expected to be issued during the American session. Aside from this pair, there are other many currency pairs that desire to know the thoughts of Fed members regarding the future rate hikes with expectations to help them determine the short-term trend for the U.S dollar.

    This ensures that the single European currency was fixed in a very tight range at 30 pips, while markets in a long position understand that any choppy movement would lead to an unprofitable trade. Since the focus is centered on the positioning of trades prior the major news events coupled with large trends once the news was issued.
    It became more interesting due to the subsequent news later this week which has equal of importance with concerns of the greens. It further opened the door for the possible reversal by the FOMC with the approaching news events.

    The FOMC failed to achieve its target, however, most of the text remained unchanged, particularly the talks of future outlook that came in lower than market expectations. This resulted in a sudden minor shock for the USD, met some buying and pushed the bucks to a tight range until the end of the course after the minute's publication.
    Considering all the projections formulated the entire day, the minutes conversely disappointed the markets which further triggered choppy data by means of the ADP report released earlier the day.

    There are reports that confirmed Jerome Powell as the next head of the Fed Reserve but caused the dollar to weaken later this day, nevertheless, the effect of this news would likely be temporary.

    Ultimately, the attention was turned towards the British pound as there are no releases from the United States or the European region for today. Hence, it is safe to say that there is some tight ranging and consolidation within the euro-dollar pair amid the trading day while waiting for the US employment statistics tomorrow which could roughly confirm the rate increase in December.
    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative
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    Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

    GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 8, 2017

    The GBP/USD softened during the trading course on Tuesday and it closed the day with choppiness with regards the British pound. The sterling lost its strength in the morning and successfully regained its entire losses until the closing of the day. As of this writing, the GBP is trading comfortably on top of the 1.3150 level. The rebound muddled the scenario relative to the direction of the British currency.

    On one hand, the American dollar appears to remain unchanged throughout the course yesterday. US President Donald Trump is currently on a trip to different Asian countries, the twitter seems to be a good venue since Trump is outside US and sarcastic comments are not present also during this period. Therefore, it bolstered the greenbacks to maintains its position. The dollar received further support from the finishing touches on tax reform plan as the program is going through various stages. The pound was mainly bullish followed by a decline from the last fall that occurred during the BOE rate hike, however, it gave a gloomy economic perspective.

    Despite the 2 cents decrease of the sterling on that day, it was able to recover within the day and worked out to acquire additional cent from the price on the same day. This indicates bullish signals towards the GBP while the market is worried about eliminating chances for more rate increase and starts to recede slowly.

    Ultimately, both the United Kingdom and the United States will not release any major economic data throughout the day. Bullishness is expected to prevail amid the day. An increase from the Cable pair has the tendency to weaken and remained steady but the price could lead the price higher in the short term.
    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative
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    Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

    GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 9, 2017

    The British currency declined throughout the trading day on Wednesday as fears continue to influence the sterling relative to the Brexit negotiations, as well as the potential of Britain to maintain its economic stability during this period. The GBP went down to the 1.31 level for a short period of time prior the rebound from that point, which allowed the currency to close the day over the 1.31 mark but remained to be weak as of this moment.

    Another reason for the decline of the GBPUSD is the continuous dollar strengthening that boosted the discussion on the tax reform bill. The U.S. dollar trades with little strength since the approval of the tax bill by President Donald Trump and his team. However, the confirmation is not yet through since it is currently brought into law while there are reports about the possible delay of the actual implementation. On the other hand, some say that Trump will not allow this to happen amid the uncertainties regarding this matter that would likely influence the greenbacks in the near-term.

    Moreover, the GBP was supported by the entire talks concerning the slow Brexit process which continued to bog down every single day. The sterling was also affected by the pessimistic UK economic outlook brought by the latest rate announcement by the BOE, this could possibly be the reason for the continuous trading near the range lows by the Cable pair despite rate increase. Aside from the fact that the market priced in the rate hike, it further expects more from the Bank of England but the bank did not provide some positive statement that put pressure on the pound.

    Ultimately, the United States or the United Kingdom will not release any major report. Therefore, consolidation is projected on either side of 1.31 mark throughout the day. The support came in at 1.31 region which is very strong along with sudden bounces which indicates that the pound is not subjected to any decline sooner or later.
    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative
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    Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 10, 2017

    The single European currency paired with the U.S. dollar drove higher during Thursday session since the trade surplus in Germany has expanded, while the U.S. initial claims rebounded. Moreover, the German growth is predicted to overcome its previous outlook as the inflation is projected to remain muted capping the upside in the pair.

    The EURUSD had moved upwards and pushed back on top of the 1.1625 level near around the 10-day moving average, which serves as a support in the short-term. Further support hits the 1.1550 weekly lows. A close over the 1.17 region could possibly negate the formation and triggered consolidation. The negative momentum was seen declining as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) indicator is printing in the red, linked with an ascending trajectory that gives signs of consolidation.
    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative
    ForexMart

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